Von der Leyen is scheduled to fail the EU's top post-gender-balance objective

Ursula von der Leyen's goal of achieving gender balance in the top team at the European Commission seems unlikely to be met, as EU governments have rejected her request to put forward both male and female candidates.

The recently re-elected first female EU executive president is assembling her team of commissioners. Like government ministers, these individuals are high-ranking EU officials responsible for supervising the bloc's climate, technology, and industrial policies. They negotiate trade agreements, enforce European law, allocate substantial grants, and develop the union's budget.

Following her re-election, Von der Leyen expressed her goal of achieving gender equality at the highest level. However, her objective is now at risk as member states have disregarded her plea to put forward two candidates, one male and one female.

As the 30 August deadline for submitting names to Brussels approaches, 19 candidates have been proposed based on an analysis of government announcements and local media reports. Among them, 14 are men, and five are women.

The seven countries that have yet to finalise their nominations, Lithuania and Romania, are anticipated to confirm male candidates soon.

At the same time, Belgium and Denmark are widely expected to propose male candidates. Currently, men are leading the race in two countries that have yet to nominate their candidates: Italy and Portugal. On the other hand, women are considered the favourites in Bulgaria.

In a potential worst-case scenario, the upcoming commission, set to assume office in December, may have a concerning gender imbalance. With only 22% or 26% women, including von der Leyen herself, this would be a regression from the previous commission's 44% female representation upon taking office in 2019.

Lina Gálvez, the chair of the European Parliament's gender equality committee, has called on von der Leyen to demand that EU governments put forward female candidates. "We never accomplish anything without pushing boundaries and applying pressure," she stated in an interview with The Guardian. "In the current climate, where movements opposing gender equality are at the forefront of fascist and anti-democratic ideologies, it is crucial that we do not display any signs of weakness in our dedication to promoting gender equality."

Another challenge for von der Leyen is the exemption granted to governments that renominate their current commissioner without providing any female candidates.

Among the returnees, notable figures include Thierry Breton of France, who engaged in a public exchange with tech mogul Elon Musk, and Maroš Šefčovič, a commission vice-president responsible for a wide range of areas, including EU-UK relations.

Valdis Dombrovskis from Latvia, Wopke Hoekstra from the Netherlands, and Oliver Várhelyi from Hungary have also been selected to return to Brussels. Dubravka Šuica, a Croatian former mayor responsible for demography policy, stands out as the sole female nominee for reappointment.

There is a growing sense of resentment surrounding this exemption. One EU diplomat jokingly questioned the need for another woman candidate, suggesting that Slovakia could nominate Šefčovič for a fifth time, as they considered him the ideal candidate. Although the country has never had a female commissioner, Slovakia has decided to renominate Šefčovič for a fourth term.

Various EU leaders have stated that they do not plan to nominate a woman, citing the absence of a legal obligation. "We have decided to send one name," stated Ireland's prime minister, Simon Harris, in June, as he confirmed his intention to propose finance minister Michael McGrath by the treaties.

Many EU capitals still need to welcome the request for two candidates, as the job of EU commissioner is highly coveted and involves intricate negotiations between governing parties and prime ministers and presidents.

Ingrida Šimonytė, the prime minister of Lithuania, recently characterised her country's process as incredibly intricate. Her government has announced its plan to send Andrius Kubilius, one of her predecessors, to Brussels after a contentious power struggle.

Governments that did not heed von der Leyen's plea for gender equality may find their candidates assigned less influential portfolios instead of the coveted "big economic job" many governments are vying for. In past years, governments that failed to meet the commission's expectations were assigned candidates to oversee multilingualism, education, and culture.

"It is a common desire among commissioners to have access to resources, funding for policies, authority, and expertise. However, it is not feasible for every commissioner to obtain all of these," stated Sophia Russack, an expert at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels.

According to Russack, the number of important portfolios is not 27 or 26. He suggests that this situation could be seen as a way to exert leverage, with the implication being that either a woman is appointed or one of the less desirable portfolios is assigned."

Having a predominantly male top team would be seen as a significant setback for the EU's efforts to achieve gender equality. The EU's gender equality strategy, set in 2020, aims for a 50% gender balance in all levels of Commission management by the end of 2024. Meeting this goal is essential to avoid embarrassment.

According to insiders, there is a suggestion that a commission with less gender balance could potentially lead to an increased likelihood of commissioner candidates being rejected by the European parliament.

Before the assembly votes on whether to approve the entire commission, all nominees are required to appear before MEP committees. "One or another will face scrutiny regarding their qualifications and the criticism that their government failed to nominate a woman," a second EU diplomat commented.

The European Commission spokesperson refrained from providing any comments regarding the candidates and the issue of gender balance.