The geopolitical factors of Sheikh Hasina's downfall

Ever since Sheikh Hasina, also known as Bangladesh's "Iron Lady," was removed from office, there has been significant speculation about the involvement of foreign actors.

Michael Kugelman, head of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, delves into these speculations during an extensive, private conversation with Ramisa Rob.

The news article provides a geopolitical analysis and explanation of Michael Kugelman of Shiekh Hasina's fall.

Michael Kugelman's concerns are stability risks, a weakened economy, and an uncertain political transition.

While recent events such as the return of police to work and the formation of the interim government have alleviated some worries and led to cautious optimism in some quarters, there is still lingering concern.

He emphasised that the international community's apprehension should not be exaggerated; this crisis in Bangladesh was internal, and there are numerous ongoing global wars and other significant crises.

Bangladesh's role as a battleground for competition among major powers will remain unchanged. The US, China, Russia, and India all have strong motivations to engage and maintain influence.

Dhaka will welcome this engagement despite facing the same challenge as the Hasina government in being a nonaligned state amidst escalating competition among major powers.

How does the US view India giving refuge to Sheikh Hasina after her ouster? 

It makes perfect sense for Hasina to seek safety in India since she had no better friend than the Narendra Modi government.

The US does not like the idea of India having her for a long time.

There is no doubt that India wants to make new friends in Dhaka. If so, it should avoid giving Hasina a permanent home in India.

There's been mixed signals regarding India's response to the fall of Sheikh Hasina. How do you view it? 

To be clear, India was the only country sad when the Hasina government declined.

Everyone knows that New Delhi had put all of its hopes in Hasina and the Awami League for years and would not be open to any other party.

For a long time, India has agreed with Hasina that she was the only leader standing between a secular and moderate Bangladesh and a nation destabilised by Islamists.

On the other hand, India's security is more at risk because Hasina was removed.

New Delhi has good reasons to be worried about things like threats to the Hindu community in Bangladesh and new waves of people crossing the border.

While Bangladesh's political landscape has changed dramatically, India's foreign policy remains adaptable and pragmatic.

It is poised to establish communication with Bangladesh's new leadership, paving the way for a potentially positive relationship.

Mutual interests in trade, border security, and competition with other major powers bolster the potential for a constructive relationship.

How does this regime change in Bangladesh affect the Indo-Pacific policy? 

In the short run, Hasina's sudden resignation confused Indo-Pacific policy because the US and its partners do not need to know what the next government will do strategically.

Hasina's government put out a paper called Indo-Pacific Outlook that did a great job of balancing the ideas that the US-led Indo-Pacific policy and China's foreign policy plans stand for. We still do not need to determine the new government's plans.

Right now, foreign policy will not be a top concern for the temporary government. Law and order, business, and government change will immediately be the main areas of attention.

There will be a few foreign policy goals right away, though: One is what to do with India, especially regarding how to deal with Hasina as long as she stays there.

Myanmar is the other country next to Bangladesh. The war in that area is getting worse, which increases the risk of more significant impacts and more Rohingya fleeing.

Since the recent political situation took Bangladesh's army's attention away from the ball, Dhaka cannot afford to take that risk right now.

Once Bangladesh is more stable, the government will be able to give foreign policy more policy bandwidth.

We will see much continuity with the Hasina government, especially when balancing relations with the West, the great powers, and the Global South.

They must be careful not to hurt ties with the US and EU, Bangladesh's main export markets.

Bangladesh will be better off economically if it accepts democracy and stops making threats against the West like Hasina did from time to time.

How could this fall affect Bangladesh-China relations? 

Bangladesh's new government will try to keep ties with China strong because it will see that doing so is best for its economic and military goals. However, there is one significant change that we are going to see.

Hasina kept relations between China and India in check and grew ties with Beijing. However, because of her special bond with Modi's India, she could only go so far with relations with Beijing without angering New Delhi.

Avoiding foreign policy moves that anger India will not be as essential. It could change the way Dhaka and Beijing talk to each other.

Many conspiracy theories exist regarding US interference and Dr Yunus' closeness with the West. Can you debunk them from the US perspective? 

First, it is essential to note that most Bangladeshis, besides Hasina and her family and a few die-hard Awami League followers, do not believe the story that the US or someone else from outside of Bangladesh helped get rid of her. It is primarily an Indian story. That alone is a red flag.

When the US goes abroad, it sees a world on fire. At home, it is dealing with a very heated race for president. It is not to think about Bangladesh first.

Chief Adviser Dr. Yunus indeed has a lot of fans and friends in the US. People who accept the false claim that the US had something to do with Hasina's removal will use his position as head of the interim government to try to prove their point.

However, it is hard to see how he could be working against Bangladesh's best interests when he has a lot of support there, led the interim government only when asked to by the leaders of the student protests (and the army probably did not mind), and promised to work for democracy and reform everywhere.

The US sees Bangladesh as a great power competing with itself. Because of this, it will welcome Yunus as head of the interim government, but it will be wary of a new government that might bring the country even closer to China.

If Bangladesh returns to being stable, Washington will pick up where it left off, focussing on trade, climate change, and strategically working together. Remember that President Joe Biden sent Hasina a letter soon after the start of her last and, unfortunately, short term.

The letter discussed starting a new era in relations that would concern many problems. I do not doubt that if Washington worries about rights and democracy in Bangladesh again, it will not be quiet about it. It could help clear up another misunderstanding about US strategy in Bangladesh: favouring groups and parties not part of the Awami League.

All of these claims of a foreign hand are exceedingly hurtful because they keep the actions of the many brave and young Bangladeshis who fought hard for change and often died in the process of justice.

There have been hundreds of cases of persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh since August 5. What do you make of this communal violence? 

South Asia has had religious bloodshed for a long time, which is sad. It is sometimes caused by pure hate and more significant political issues. As of late, it looks like most of the attacks in Bangladesh on the Hindu community were done as a way to get back at people who are thought to support Hasina.

However, Bangladesh needs to investigate this matter further to understand the significance of these acts and what is behind them.

Bringing backorder is the first thing the temporary government needs to do to stop the attacks. To do that, the cops need to return to the streets. Since Hasina left the country, there has not been enough protection, which makes the bad guys feel even better.

The sensitivity of this topic is evident because the police were at the forefront of the forceful suppression of peaceful protesters, leading to widespread anger. Additionally, they are frequently subject to targeted attacks in retaliation. Nonetheless, it is essential to reinstate law and order, which necessitates the presence of the police.

That should help now that many cops are back at work. However, the temporary government will need to do more. For example, it must pursue the people behind the attacks in court and work with the communities that were hurt to ensure they get the safety they need.

Law and order will be one of the first extensive tests for the temporary government.

There is a theory on social media that Bangladesh will become the next Afghanistan, which seems to stem from misinformation. As an expert on South Asia, do you think there exists a severe threat that Bangladesh will become an Islamist country?

Yes, there is fake news about attacks on minorities, but respected fact-checker sites have shown it to be false. Though pictures and films are said to show attacks, they show things that happened at a different time, in a different country, or not at all.

Attacks are still happening, however. One of the many bad things about this fake news is that It takes attention away from the attacks that are taking place. That said, no one can be lazy or in denial, even when they need to call out what is false.

I am afraid I have to disagree with the idea that Bangladesh could turn into the next Afghanistan. Even someone who does not pay much attention to Bangladesh knows that it has strong, if flawed, institutions, a strong state power that covers the whole country, and a history of peaceful Islam.

Yes, there have been evil groups like JMB and powerful religious groups like Jamaat and Hefazat that are great at getting people to work together.

However, these groups do not have as much of an effect on politics and society as they do in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

Many people in India believe the Awami League's story that if Bangladesh does not have Hasina and her party, Islamist groups will take over and make the country unstable.

One can comprehend India's concerns about the threat of terrorists, some of whom receive support from Pakistan and have caused significant harm to India.

However, spreading untrue information about Bangladesh is exaggerating the extent of the Islamist threat, potentially leading to increased instability in the country during a sensitive period.

What, in your view, led to the fall of the Awami League regime? How do you think the world should view it? 

It is straightforward: Hasina's security forces used horrific levels of violence against peaceful protesters. It destroyed Hasina's credibility, which was already weak because of the economy and yet another questionable election, and made the whole country support the protesters.

The harsh acts of the security forces also caused anger among the people against the government. After letting the cat out of the bag, Hasina and the Awami League could do nothing but step down.