Philippines president warns China of war risks

The Philippine President, Bongbong Marcos, warned China against crossing a boundary in the South China Sea. The ongoing standoff between the two nations shows no signs of de-escalation.

Mr. Marcos delivered his remarks at a security forum in Singapore, which included defence chiefs from various nations, including the US's Lloyd Austin.

The speaker emphasised the region's ongoing importance for Washington, highlighting that the United States' security is closely tied to the stability of Asia.

Over the past few months, the ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines has escalated into confrontational clashes.

Manila has strongly expressed its concerns regarding the actions of Chinese patrol ships, which have been using water cannons against Philippine boats and supply vessels.

Beijing has asserted its commitment to protecting its sovereignty. During the summit, a Chinese military spokesperson made allegations against the Philippines, claiming they were engaging in "provocations."

Concerns have been raised about the potential escalation that could lead to a conflict involving China and the United States in the South China Sea.

According to a treaty signed between the US and the Philippines, the US must provide defense assistance to the Southeast Asian nation in the event of an attack.

The US has vowed to honor its agreements with its regional allies and has made efforts to strengthen such ties, including hosting summits with Japan and the Philippines last month.

At the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore on Friday night, Mr. Marcos had barely concluded his introductory speech when a delegate asked about a hypothetical scenario in which a Chinese water cannon killed a Filipino soldier.

He questioned whether he would view it as a significant boundary and if it would trigger the treaty between the US and the Philippines.

If a Filipino, whether a service member or a citizen, is deliberately killed, it can be considered an act of war. In such a case, we will respond accordingly. Our treaty partners share the same standard as well.

He observed that there have been injuries among Filipinos in recent clashes, but fortunately, no fatalities have been reported so far. Once we reach that stage, it would be a significant turning point. Is that a clear boundary? It will likely be a red line.

When questioned by the TGE for a response, a Chinese military spokesperson stated that if a single individual were to be unintentionally killed in a conflict or accident that leads to war, it would indicate the aggressive nature of the country involved.

He disagreed with Mr Marcos' criticism of China's actions to assert sovereignty in his speech, suggesting that the Philippines were attempting to shift the blame onto China.

In a recent speech, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin expressed concern over the dangerous harassment that the Philippines have been facing.

He noted that while the US remained "ironclad" in its commitment to its treaty with the Philippines, he would not speculatively address how the US may respond to the scenario presented to Mr. Marcos.

He emphasized the importance of maintaining open lines of communication and ensuring the freedom of navigation in the seas and skies. "Our objective is to prevent unnecessary escalation," he stated. In my analysis, I believe conflict or confrontation with China is not on the immediate horizon, nor is it an inevitable outcome.

Speaking to a group of delegates primarily from Asia, he emphasised the United States' dedication to the Indo-Pacific region, emphasising that it remained a top priority, even in light of Ukraine and Gaza's ongoing conflicts.

He outlined the methods by which they were bolstering the defence capabilities of several Asian nations, including military drills, agreements, and the presence of US troops. "The security of the United States is closely tied to the security of Asia," he stated.

An essential aspect of the US strategy involves strengthening the military capabilities of the Philippines.

A long-term defense plan with the US could involve the deployment of drones, military transport aircraft, and defense systems. Manila is actively seeking to secure a significant portion of a potential US military aid package designated for its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Philippines has also been bolstering its military spending and recently acquired missiles from India.

During the summit, the Chinese military expressed their belief that the Philippines had been influenced by external forces and had acted in a way that contradicted their previous commitments. They specifically mentioned the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines had established a military outpost, as a source of provocation.

They expressed their opposition to the US sending a mid-range missile system to the Philippines during a recent joint military exercise, citing concerns about its impact on regional security.

According to a Chinese military spokesman, the US strategy, as mentioned in Mr Austin's speech, is believed to have the potential to cause division, provoke confrontation, and undermine stability in the region. The statement emphasised the importance of diplomatic dialogue in resolving disagreements with China and cautioned against actions that could potentially escalate tensions.

The US and China have expressed interest in enhancing communication to prevent potential conflicts.

After a meeting between Mr. Austin and Mr. Dong, both parties expressed their commitment to restoring telephone conversations between military commanders. This hotline was severed in 2022 following a visit to Taiwan by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Additionally, they discussed the establishment of a crisis communications working group.

I informed Mr. Dong that I would be available to answer his call if it was urgent. "And I certainly hope that he'll do the same," expressed Mr. Austin, emphasizing that such communication would significantly enhance regional stability.

The Chinese military characterised the meeting as positive, practical, and constructive, suggesting that the relationship between the US and China shows signs of stabilizing and avoiding further deterioration.