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Le Pen's party dominates France

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The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, has achieved yet another triumph, further solidifying its path toward reshaping the landscape of French politics.


In the upcoming days, there will be extensive discussion about centrist and left-wing candidates potentially withdrawing in the second round to consolidate the anti-RN vote.

 

When other parties unite to prevent the far right from gaining power, there will also be much lamentation about the old Front Republican's decline. 

 

It would require a significant upset to challenge the precise outcome of this initial round of voting, which is that RN has unquestionably emerged as the dominant political force in France.


However, critical decisions will still be made in the coming week. 

 

The contrast lies in the ability of a far-right government to freely implement its agenda when it holds an outright majority in the National Assembly versus the limitations it faces when the Assembly is divided. 

 

Currently, the seat projections indicate a potential range of 260 to 310 seats for the RN. Considering that 289 seats represent an absolute majority, much is still at stake. 

 

French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party and the left-wing New Popular Front alliance will urge their followers to strategically vote in the second round on 7 July to minimize the negative impact on their agenda. 

 

Regardless of their preferred candidate's elimination, voters will be encouraged to support the candidate running against the RN in their constituency. 

 

However, the issue with this type of party order is that an increasingly smaller number of individuals pay attention to them nowadays. 

 

The disappearance of the stigma associated with voting for the RN has been a gradual and significant development, which can now be acknowledged as fully accomplished.

 

Another challenge for those opposing the RN is the number of triangular votes in the second round. 

 

These are constituencies where three candidates will compete instead of just two, which adds complexity to the upcoming Sunday's elections. Typically, one representative from the centre, the far right, and the left. 

 

The high number of triangular can be attributed to the significant voter turnout, a direct consequence of the high stakes. 

 

The lightning campaign has also hindered small parties from organizing effectively, resulting in a concentration of votes within the three main blocs. 

 

When three parties are vying for a constituency, it becomes more challenging for the anti-RN vote to unite. Centrist or left-winger candidates will stand aside in many places, although not all. 

 

The country's prevailing belief is that a far-right victory is becoming increasingly likely. 

 

What was once considered unthinkable is now on the verge of becoming a reality.

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